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AI Labs · White Paper · OECD · INT · substrate v1

Three percentage points that shouldn't exist

Ireland's 2021 data-centre share of national metered electricity: 11%, per Ireland's Central Statistics Office as cited in the OECD Digital Economy Outlook 2024. The model said 14%, then constructed an entire trajectory around the wrong baseline.

📅 Published 8 Jun 2026⚙️ Methodology v2.1🌍 OECD · Digital Technologies & Environment 2025
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14%
Model output
Claude Sonnet 4.6 · web search active
vs
11%
OECD source text
Ireland CSO 2023 · OECD Digital Economy Outlook 2024
What happened

One wrong number, a fabricated trajectory

Claude Sonnet 4.6 was asked one specific question: what share of Ireland's 2021 metered electricity did data centres account for, per the OECD Digital Economy Outlook 2024? The answer in the Outlook, drawn from Ireland's CSO 2023 data, is 11%. The model said 14%.

The model then built a full trajectory off that wrong anchor: "rose from 5% in 2015 to 14% in 2021, 18% in 2022, and 21% in 2023." Every data point after 2015 is extrapolated from the wrong 2021 number. One substituted percentage produced three wrong figures.

The model committed to 14%, then constructed three further data points anchored to that wrong baseline. A policy team using this output in a briefing on data-centre energy demand would have an internally consistent but factually wrong trajectory embedded in a client document.
IRELAND DATA-CENTRE ELECTRICITY SHARE — TRAJECTORY FABRICATION 25% 15% 5% 2015 2021 2022 2023 11% ✓ 14% ✗ 18% ✗ 21% ✗ OECD/CSO source Model fabrication
The model's fabricated 14% baseline for 2021 generated a compounding trajectory across 2022 and 2023. Three wrong numbers from one substitution.
Why this specific number matters

Energy policy evidence and the cost of a wrong baseline

The OECD's Recommendation of the Council on Digital Technologies and the Environment (2025) is a policy instrument that member countries use to frame national-level digital sustainability strategy. Ireland's data-centre electricity share is a reference data point in the digital infrastructure energy demand debate. Policy teams, sustainability consultants, and national strategy offices citing the OECD recommendation as authority for that figure need the right number.

A three-percentage-point error, 11% inflated to 14%, overstates data-centre demand by roughly 27% relative to the source figure. In an energy policy context, that's the difference between a measured finding and an alarmist claim. Both directions of that error matter to good policy.

Full finding: OECD-DIGITAL-TECHNOLOGIES-ENVIRONMENT-2025 hub →