--- type: "AIHallucinationFinding" title: "A civil-society policy team at a development-finance NGO is preparing a campaign report arguing…" citation_id: "RLB-H-INT-IMF-IMF-PRECAUTIONARY-BALANCES-REVIEW-2026-Q009-Opus47" finding_uid: "INT-IMF-INT-001-IMF-PRECAUTIONARY-BALANCES-REVIEW-2026-v1-009--opus-47-websearch" question_uid: "INT-IMF-INT-001-IMF-PRECAUTIONARY-BALANCES-REVIEW-2026-v1-009" regulation_id: "INT-IMF-INT-001-IMF-PRECAUTIONARY-BALANCES-REVIEW-2026" regulation_slug: "IMF-PRECAUTIONARY-BALANCES-REVIEW-2026" regulation_title: "Review of the Adequacy of the Fund's Precautionary Balances (2026)" regulator_short_code: "IMF" regulatory_body_id: "IMF-INT-001" jurisdiction_code: "INT" j_level: "J1" ai_subject: "claude-opus-4-7" ai_subject_display: "claude-opus-4-7" ai_subject_version: "claude-opus-4-7" response_failure_mode: "misstated_rule" substrate_document_name: "R6-PRESS_RELEASE_2024-00006" substrate_document_path: "https://reglegbrief.com/R6-PRESS_RELEASE_2024-00006" substrate_section_anchor: "Press Release No. 24/79 (March 22, 2024) Executive Board Assessment paragraph on floor increase" citation_issue_types: ["Pretextual"] audiences: ["ai_labs", "practitioners", "sector_dept"] published_at: "2026-06-15T10:44:20.645518+00:00" substrate_version: 1 methodology_version: "v2.3" license: "CC-BY-4.0" resource: "https://reglegbrief.com/regulators/j1/int/imf/IMF-PRECAUTIONARY-BALANCES-REVIEW-2026/ai-labs/finding/INT-IMF-INT-001-IMF-PRECAUTIONARY-BALANCES-REVIEW-2026-v1-009--opus-47-websearch/" tags: ["ai-hallucination", "misstated_rule", "imf", "imf-precautionary-balances-review-2026", "int"] timestamp: "2026-06-16T00:00:00+00:00" --- # AI Hallucination Finding: A civil-society policy team at a development-finance NGO is preparing a campaign report arguing… - **Citation ID.** `RLB-H-INT-IMF-IMF-PRECAUTIONARY-BALANCES-REVIEW-2026-Q009-Opus47` - **Finding UID.** `INT-IMF-INT-001-IMF-PRECAUTIONARY-BALANCES-REVIEW-2026-v1-009--opus-47-websearch` - **Regulation.** [`IMF-PRECAUTIONARY-BALANCES-REVIEW-2026`](/okf/regulations/IMF-PRECAUTIONARY-BALANCES-REVIEW-2026.md) — Review of the Adequacy of the Fund's Precautionary Balances (2026) - **Regulator.** [`IMF-INT-001`](/okf/bodies/IMF-INT-001.md) — International Monetary Fund - **AI subject.** claude-opus-4-7 - **Failure mode.** [`misstated_rule`](/okf/taxonomy/failure-modes.md) - **Published.** 2026-06-15T10:44:20.645518+00:00 ## Question put to the AI subject A civil-society policy team at a development-finance NGO is preparing a campaign report arguing that the IMF's precautionary balances framework is over-capitalised. The report will be distributed to Bretton Woods Project partners, parliamentarians in donor countries, and journalists. You've been asked to draft the historical-trajectory section covering: how the minimum floor for precautionary balances has changed across the post-2010 review cycles, what the floor value was IMMEDIATELY BEFORE the March 2024 review raised it, and what it is now. The team needs cycle-specific values to make the over-capitalisation case credibly. ## AI subject's verbatim answer HISTORICAL-TRAJECTORY SECTION — Minimum Floor for Precautionary Balances The IMF's minimum floor for precautionary balances has been tightened repeatedly across the post-2010 review cycles. Cycle-by-cycle: - 2010 framework: floor SDR 10 billion. - 2012 review: reaffirmed SDR 10 billion. - 2014, 2016, 2018, 2020 reviews: SDR 10 billion held. - 2021 review: reaffirmed SDR 10 billion (interim review during pandemic). - 2022 review: SDR 10 billion held. - March 2024 review: floor raised to SDR 15 billion — a 50% step-up. - March 2026 review: reaffirmed at SDR 15 billion. Value immediately BEFORE March 2024 review: SDR 10 billion. Value AFTER March 2024 review: SDR 15 billion. This 50% step-up is one of the cleanest empirical anchors for the over-capitalisation argument: the Fund chose to raise the floor at a moment when GRA credit was actually receding from its post-pandemic peak, suggesting the buffer is calibrated against tail-risk and political-cycle considerations rather than expected credit demand. Source: IMF Press Release on March 2024 PB review; IMF Financial Operations Chapter 6. ## Verbatim regulator text contradicting the answer > Directors supported increasing the minimum floor for precautionary balances from SDR 15 billion to SDR 20 billion. _Source:_ [R6-PRESS_RELEASE_2024-00006](https://reglegbrief.com/R6-PRESS_RELEASE_2024-00006) _Section anchor:_ Press Release No. 24/79 (March 22, 2024) Executive Board Assessment paragraph on floor increase ## Failure mode **`misstated_rule`** — Misstated rule — the AI gave a definite rule, threshold, or obligation that the regulator's verbatim text does not support. ## Citation-issue types - **Pretextual** — ## Related concepts - Regulation: [IMF-PRECAUTIONARY-BALANCES-REVIEW-2026](/okf/regulations/IMF-PRECAUTIONARY-BALANCES-REVIEW-2026.md) - Regulator: [IMF-INT-001](/okf/bodies/IMF-INT-001.md) - Failure-mode taxonomy: [misstated_rule](/okf/taxonomy/failure-modes.md) - Methodology: [v2.3](/okf/methodology.md) - Editorial standards: [right of reply](/okf/editorial-standards.md) ## Reproduction Citation ID: `RLB-H-INT-IMF-IMF-PRECAUTIONARY-BALANCES-REVIEW-2026-Q009-Opus47` Resource URL (HTML view of this finding): This finding is reproducible against the substrate document linked above, using the same AI subject, the same methodology version, and the verbatim question text.